In a significant policy shift, South Australia will introduce mandatory Year 1 numeracy checks for all public school students from 2026, following a trial that found over 60% of students were ‘mathematically vulnerable’. Meanwhile, the federal government is rolling out year 1 phonics checks nationally so children who are struggling to read are identified early. While the moves signal a renewed focus on foundational skills in early education, recent data shows little change in NAPLAN scores since 2023, raising questions about whether early screening alone can lift stagnant performance.
National Performance Remains Flat
To begin with, since 2023, there has been little change in average Year 3 NAPLAN scores for literacy and numeracy across all five testing domains. Even more concerning, one in three Australian students is not meeting literacy and numeracy standards. Indeed, it is simply too late to wait until year 3 to find out that one in three students is not on track.
Furthermore, student performance across Australia has remained broadly stable compared to 2023, suggesting that despite widespread testing programs, the country hasn’t found a breakthrough strategy. The disadvantage gap persists and widens. Specifically, children from disadvantaged backgrounds, very remote areas, and Indigenous Australians are up to two times more likely to start school developmentally vulnerable than the national average. As a result, the gap between children from the most disadvantaged and advantaged families grew from 20.6 percentage points at school entry to 27.2 percentage points in Year 5. Clearly, foundational skills interventions aren’t reaching the students who need them most.
Regional and Cultural Disparities Reveal Systemic Inequities
On one hand, students from New South Wales and Victoria routinely outperform students from the rest of the country. On the other hand, the gaps are most severe for Indigenous students. Ultimately, at a national level, year nine Indigenous students are on average three years behind non-Indigenous in numeracy, 3.4 years behind in reading, and 4.2 years behind in writing. In other words, cultural background and postcode still overwhelmingly shape educational outcomes.
South Australia’s Phonics Check Shows Promise
However, not all the news is bleak. The introduction of the phonics check in South Australia has seen literacy improve by 28 percentage points since the first check began. For instance, the first phonics results in 2018 found that, out of almost 6,000 students that took part, 58% did not meet the expected achievement. Moreover, the 2024 phonics screening check results have remained stable, with 70% of students scoring at or above the expected achievement. This success story is what drives the numeracy expansion.
Similarly, the numeracy check is a similar concept to the phonics check introduced in 2017. Additionally, the trial rolled out in 95 public schools identified significant numbers of students who struggled with place value understanding and multiplication and division. Consequently, the introduction of the phonics check has seen literacy improve by 28 percentage points since the first check began, and it is hoped the introduction of the numeracy check will lead to the same positive results.
How the Checks Work in Practice
To understand this approach, the Year 1 Phonics Screening Check is a short assessment that tells teachers how students are progressing in phonics, taking 5–7 minutes and carried out by classroom teachers with each student individually. Results are available immediately. However, the numeracy check follows a similar model. In fact, each educator is provided with a specially designed kit containing interactive props such as coins or visual cards to test their student’s basic mathematical skills and understanding, and using the kit, educators interview each student to assess their mathematical thinking. Not surprisingly, the statewide numeracy check will begin with all year 1 teachers being provided with face-to-face training next year, so the one-on-one student assessment interview can take place in 2026.
What Happens Next
Looking ahead, the statewide numeracy check will begin with all year 1 teachers being provided with face-to-face training next year, so the one-on-one student assessment interview can take place in 2026. Meanwhile, phonics and numeracy checks will enable schools to identify students who may require more support earlier. Essentially, the government’s bet: early identification leads to early intervention, which leads to better long-term outcomes. Yet national NAPLAN data showing little change since 2023 suggests the challenge extends beyond screening. Whether the South Australian model can scale nationally remains to be seen.
What This Means for Schools and Families
In practical terms, schools across Australia will need to adapt to expanded early-years screening. More assessments mean more administrative work, more data to track and more pressure on teachers and students. Therefore, the challenge: ensuring that testing leads to meaningful support, not just more paperwork. Ultimately, with about one in three students falling short of the NAPLAN proficiency benchmark and disadvantage gaps persisting, schools need resources and evidence-based strategies that work. Federal funding is now tied to significant changes, including phonics and numeracy checks in the early years, evidence-based teaching and catch-up tutoring, signaling that accountability and support must go hand in hand.
